The evolving situation in Syria demands scrutiny, especially regarding its repercussions for Israel’s security and the stability of the broader Middle East. Syria has become a focal point for the intensifying Sunni-Shi’ite struggle, a development with profound regional consequences. While the weakening of Iranian influence represents a potential strategic advantage for Israel, it simultaneously introduces heightened instability in a volatile region.
Central to the Syrian conflict is the gradual erosion of President Bashar Assad’s regime, driven by the ascendance of Sunni military factions. This shift directly undermines Tehran’s long-standing strategy of maintaining a Shi’ite axis of power that spans from Iran through Iraq and Syria and into Lebanon. Historically, the Assad regime served as a linchpin for Iranian influence, facilitated in part by Hezbollah’s role in suppressing the Sunni opposition. However, Israel’s decisive blows against Hezbollah in Lebanon have significantly diminished this alliance’s effectiveness. The empowerment of Sunni forces in Syria not only weakens Assad but also disrupts Iran’s broader hegemonic ambitions, with potential reverberations in other Iranian-influenced territories, such as Iraq.
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Source:
Syria’s current conflict and its implications for Israel, by Avi Abelow/JNS, December 5, 2024